El Mundo 3, América del Sur 1

Back from the July 4 holiday weekend break without having posted in a few days. I still have more posts from the last few days in Johannesburg, but since the semi-finals start today, I want to make sure to get in my predictions before the games start.

I went 2-for-4 on my quarterfinal predictions. On Friday, Brasil completely lost its collective mind and a 1-nil lead over Nederland to lose a shocker; and Ghana snatched defeat from the jaws of victory with perhaps the single most excruciating World Cup exit ever, to Uruguay. (I hope Asamoah Gyan is able to recover...ouch!) Saturday's games went more or less as I predicted, though I don't think anyone expected Deutschland to put up a 4-nil rout on Argentina. Wow, Die Mannschaft looks dangerous! Our view of them in person turned out to be indicative of even bigger things to come.

Here are my semifinal picks:

• Nederland vs. Uruguay - These two countries have played four times ever, with Uruguay prevailing three of those times. I suspect, however, that many of those games were awhile ago and have very little predictive value. Uruguay will be without Luis Suárez--Robin to Diego Forlán's Batman--due to an automatic suspension related to his red card for the goal-line handball against Ghana. He really "took one for the team," and they wouldn't be here without that handball, but still, losing him hurts. Meanwhile, despite getting stomped on (and inducing a key red card) by Brasil, Nederland's Arjen Robben is back in fine form. Pick: the Oranje get the win with a clean sheet; Uruguay won't have enough firepower to produce a goal.
• España vs. Deutschland - This firecracker is a re-match of the 2008 European championship final, which España won 1-0 on a goal by acclaimed Liverpool striker Fernando Torres. Coming off knee surgery in April, Torres has looked horrible so far in this tournament, but the coach continues to play him. No matter: David Villa has picked up the slack with five goals, including one in each of the last four games. But one has to wonder whether La Roja's offense has looked anemic due to the wrong personnel or because it has faced such stout defenses as Portugal and Paraguay. España will need goals, because Die Mannschaft can score in bunches--just ask England and Argentina. Losing Wunderkind and second leading scorer Thomas Müller to a two-yellow-card suspension hurts them, but not enough. Pick: Deutschland 3-1, and Miroslav Klose ties Ronaldo's all-time scoring record.